How missing evidence-based medicine indicators can inform COVID-19 vaccine distribution policies: a scoping review and calculation of indicators from data in randomised controlled trials.

OBJECTIVE: Reports of efficacy, effectiveness and harms of COVID-19 vaccines have not used key indicators from evidence-based medicine (EBM) that can inform policies about vaccine distribution. This study aims to clarify EBM indicators that consider baseline risks when assessing vaccines' benefits versus harms: absolute risk reduction (ARR) and number needed to be vaccinated (NNV), versus absolute risk of the intervention (ARI) and number needed to harm (NNH). METHODS: We used a multimethod approach, including a scoping review of the literature; calculation of risk reductions and harms from data concerning five major vaccines; analysis of risk reductions in population subgroups with varying baseline risks; and comparisons with prior vaccines. FINDINGS: The scoping review showed few reports regarding ARR, NNV, ARI and NNH; comparisons of benefits versus harms using these EBM methods; or analyses of varying baseline risks. Calculated ARRs for symptomatic infection and hospitalisation were approximately 1% and 0.1%, respectively, as compared with relative risk reduction of 50%-95% and 58%-100%. NNV to prevent one symptomatic infection and one hospitalisation was in the range of 80-500 and 500-4000. Based on available data, ARI and NNH as measures of harm were difficult to calculate, and the balance between benefits and harms using EBM measures remained uncertain. The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines as measured by ARR and NNV was substantially higher in population subgroups with high versus low baseline risks. CONCLUSIONS: Priorities for vaccine distribution should target subpopulations with higher baseline risks. Similar analyses using ARR/NNV and ARI/NNH would strengthen evaluations of vaccines' benefits versus harms. An EBM perspective on vaccine distribution that emphasises baseline risks becomes especially important as the world's population continues to face major barriers to vaccine access-sometimes termed 'vaccine apartheid'.

COVID-19 as Cause versus Trigger for the Collapse of Capitalism.

According to the official narrative of COVID-19, the pandemic has caused the global capitalist economy to collapse, or at least to enter a deep recession and possibly a great depression. Assigning blame to a virus takes attention away from the structural contradictions and instabilities of capitalism that would have led to a crash in any case. This narrative also helps justify non-evidence-based public health policies, including lockdowns, travel bans, closed schools and factories, and forced quarantines of large populations rather than individuals and clustered groups who harbor the infection. Advantages of such drastic measures happen primarily in countries that did not prepare adequately, that did not respond quickly enough with more focused measures to test and isolate people infected with the virus, and that have health care systems either organized by capitalist principles or suffering cutbacks and privatization as a result of capitalist economic ideologies, such as austerity. Authoritarian tactics purportedly intended to protect public health pave the way to antidemocratic rule, militarism, and fascism. These harsh policies also exert their most adverse effects on poor, minority, incarcerated, immigrant, and otherwise marginalized populations, who already suffer from the worsening economic inequality that global, financialized capitalism has fostered.

Confronting the Upstream Causes of COVID-19 and Other Epidemics to Follow.

The upstream causes of the COVID-19 pandemic have received little attention so far in public health and clinical medicine, as opposed to the downstream effects of mass morbidity and mortality. To resolve this pandemic and to prevent even more severe future pandemics, a focus on upstream causation is essential. Convincing evidence shows that this and every other important viral epidemic emerging in the recent past and predictably into the future comes from the same upstream causes: capitalist agriculture, its destruction of natural habitat, and the industrial production of meat. International and national health organizations have obscured the upstream causes of emerging viral epidemics. These organizations have suffered cutbacks in public funding but have received increased support from international financial institutions and private philanthropies that emphasize the downstream effects rather than upstream causes of infectious diseases. Conflicts of interest also have impacted public health policies. A worldwide shift has begun toward peasant agricultural practices: Research so far has shown that peasant agriculture is safer and more efficient than capitalist industrial agricultural practices. Without such a transformation of agriculture, even more devastating pandemics will result from the same upstream causes.